🧠 Smart Starter Morning Brief – May 16th, 2025

Helping Florida homebuyers make smarter moves, daily.

🎯 Market Recap: Powell Calms the Storm

Yesterday’s spike in bond yields confused many — there wasn’t a clear trigger. But today’s market movement told the real story:
The market was nervous about a potential change to the Fed’s inflation framework in Powell’s speech. When that didn’t happen? Markets exhaled. Bond yields dropped. Stocks held steady. Crisis avoided.

This matters because bond yields influence mortgage rates — and today’s dip offers a glimmer of hope for homebuyers.

🏠 Key Economic Data – What It Means for Florida Buyers

📊 Housing Starts (April): 1.37M ✅
Builders are still breaking ground. That’s a good sign for future inventory — especially important in high-demand areas like South Florida and the Treasure Coast.

📑 Building Permits: 1.45M 📉
Slight dip, but still healthy. Permits are a forward-looking indicator, and this number means there’s no major slowdown yet.

🌎 Export Prices: -0.5%
🛬 Import Prices: -0.4%
These declines suggest inflation pressures are easing — a positive sign for mortgage rates.

📈 Consumer Sentiment: 53.4 (up from 52.2)
Confidence is still low but creeping up. As confidence builds, so does housing activity.

🔥 Trending News That Could Affect Florida Homebuyers

• Walmart set to hike prices: Higher everyday costs impact buyer affordability and debt-to-income ratios — a key factor in mortgage approval.

• Meta delays AI launch: Tech slowdowns could ripple through high-income job markets, especially in areas like Miami with growing tech scenes.

• Entry-level workers feel overlooked: Affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers — we expect continued demand for down payment assistance.

• DOJ investigations into UnitedHealth and Live Nation: Signals more aggressive regulation — something to watch across housing, lending, and healthcare sectors.

🍊 Fun Fact of the Day:

Orange Juice Once Moved the Bond Market
During a brutal Florida freeze in the 1980s, orange juice prices spiked. That surge raised inflation fears, and bond yields jumped. Yes — your breakfast drink once rattled Wall Street.

💡 Bottom Line for Florida Homebuyers:

• Mortgage rates may cool slightly thanks to today’s calm in bond markets

• Housing inventory remains steady — especially positive for spring/summer buyers

• Budget carefully: rising consumer prices (like at Walmart) can reduce your homebuying power

• Explore assistance: If you’re a first-time buyer or essential worker, check out Florida's down payment assistance programs

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