By Phil Ganz
Edited by Ryan Skerritt
This blog explores the latest data, its implications for the housing market, and the initial reactions from the market.
Understanding the PCE Numbers
The key parts of the PCE—Monthly Core PCE and Annual Core PCE—exclude unpredictable items like food and energy to give a clearer view of inflation.
Here’s what the latest data revealed:
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Monthly Core PCE for March: Stayed at 0.3%, matching forecasts and previous numbers.
- Annual Core PCE for March: Came in at 2.8%, a bit above the expected 2.6%. This shows that inflation is still slightly higher than hoped, though it's being managed.
March's PCE Data Analysis
Last Thursday's jump in the quarterly PCE numbers surprised everyone and made people worried that Friday might show more of the same.
However, the numbers for March were as expected, but with a twist—the data from the previous month was revised to show higher inflation than initially thought.
This suggests that inflation is more deeply rooted, and the economic pressures are stronger than we realized, which is important for homebuyers and homeowners to remember.
Market Movements Post-PCE Release
The markets reacted cautiously but positively:
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At 09:00 AM: Markets slightly rose, helped by the data, with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) up by 0.19% and the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.5 basis points to 4.66%.
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By 11:08 AM: Markets reached their highest point for the day; MBS was up by 0.28%, and the 10-year yield dropped further by 4.1 basis points.
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At 01:53 PM: Trading leveled off but stayed lower than the day's peaks, showing traders were still cautious.
- At 05:16 PM: The day ended with the markets holding steady, reflecting a balance between early gains and more cautious trading later on.
Insights for Florida Homebuyers
This week's PCE data offers important insights, especially for homebuyers and homeowners. It suggests some stability, which is good news for those worried about rising prices and interest rates.
However, with inflation still a concern, it’s wise for those looking to buy or own a home to stay alert. Keeping track of these economic trends is crucial for making smart choices about purchasing or refinancing homes, as shifts in the economy can directly affect mortgage rates and the affordability of homes.
In short, while the latest PCE figures relieve worries about fast-rising inflation, they also remind us to monitor the economy closely, helping those in the housing market make well-informed decisions during these uncertain times.
With over 50 years of mortgage industry experience, we are here to help you achieve the American dream of owning a home. We strive to provide the best education before, during, and after you buy a home. Our advice is based on experience with Phil Ganz and Team closing over One billion dollars and helping countless families.
About Author - Phil Ganz
Phil Ganz has over 20+ years of experience in the residential financing space. With over a billion dollars of funded loans, Phil helps homebuyers configure the perfect mortgage plan. Whether it's your first home, a complex multiple-property purchase, or anything in between, Phil has the experience to help you achieve your goals.
About Editor - Ryan Skerritt
Ryan Skerritt has over 10+ years of experience in the residential financing space. With over two hundred and fifty million of funded loan volume, Ryan has the skill set to help any homebuyer configure the perfect mortgage plan.
